With the new European Commission up and running since 1 December, and Poland assuming the Presidency of the Council of the EU on 1 January, the priorities for the new mandate are beginning to take shape. Economic growth and competitiveness are expected to take centre stage, still paired with the decarbonisation agenda, although the latter now features less prominently in the general EU political discourse.

While few details have yet transpired on concrete upcoming actions, later this month, the EU’s executive is expected to unveil its much-awaited Competitiveness Compass and propose a Clean Industrial Deal by the end of February. The former is anticipated to serve as a framework building on the Draghi report, with the objective of closing the innovation gap, particularly with the US, advancing decarbonisation, and enhancing the bloc’s strategic autonomy, while the latter is expected to focus on industrial decarbonisation. In presenting its priorities, the Polish Presidency has similarly emphasised security, industrial competitiveness, and the achievement of the energy transition as key areas of focus for the next six months. Recent high-level meetings, agreements, and declarations have also begun to set the tone for the next five years.

On 16 December, EU Energy ministers met in Brussels and exchanged views on their priorities for the new legislative cycle, including the completion of the energy union, maintaining the course on climate action, and lowering energy prices. In this context, they emphasised the importance of continuing to implement the Fit for 55 policy framework as a key driver in achieving these goals. During this Council meeting, electricity markets, grids, and geothermal energy were also central discussion points, with ministers indicating the latter’s untapped potential as a local and affordable renewable energy source.

The Environment Council, held on the following day, 17 December, provided an opportunity for Environment ministers to exchange views on the EU’s 2040 climate target, which is to be agreed upon by the co-legislators following the European Commission’s February 2024 proposal, recommending a 90% net greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. The ministers notably discussed the need to reduce administrative burdens on companies and to create a stable regulatory framework as prerequisites for achieving this objective.

The same week, the European Commission announced that EU member states had reached a new agreement on expanding offshore renewable energy as part of the TEN-E Regulation, which notably sets expansion targets for each sea basin for 2030, 2040, and 2050, in line with countries’ national energy and climate plans. The arrangement includes the installation of approximately 88 gigawatts (GW) of offshore renewable generation capacity by the end of the decade, rising to around 360 GW by 2050.

However, against the backdrop of 2024 being the warmest year on record, many observers point out that the new term may not bring strong implementation of the Green Deal legislation negotiated during the previous mandate including possible rollbacks in already agreed policies. Recently, Poland’s deputy climate minister, Krzysztof Bolesta, expressed his support for postponing the EU’s new emissions trading system (ETS2) for transport and heating fuels, set to begin in 2027, fearing that vulnerable households would bear the brunt. This position echoes that of Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, who cited the law’s potential “negative impact on the whole economy.”

After a difficult battle to pass the Nature Restoration Law, the agreement to delay by one year the EU’s anti-deforestation law, and growing talks to delay the ban on combustion engines by 2035, the EU’s shift from “green” to “clean” undoubtedly symbolises a growing backlash against environmentally and climate-friendly policies. The European People’s Party, which holds a majority of seats in the European Parliament and presides over the European Commission, has expressed its preference for pausing the implementation of the Union’s Sustainability Reporting Rules and is expected to advocate for more flexible carbon pricing, particularly for hard-to-decarbonise industries, in the years ahead.