Last week, all eyes turned towards Davos, Switzerland, where the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) opened on Monday, 20 January, and to Washington D.C., in the United States, for the swearing-in of Donald Trump as the 47th President on the same day. Despite differences in scope and purpose, both major international events can be considered key moments that set the tone for forthcoming political agendas and reflect the complex and fragmented global geopolitical landscape, in which the European Union is striving to remain competitive while staying on course with its climate net-zero trajectory. 

In the run-up to the summit, on 7 January, the WEF released its Second Global Cooperation Barometer, highlighting the stagnation, if not decline, of global cooperation due to rising geopolitical tensions. While collaboration in technology and innovation has remained robust, fostering the global adoption of new technologies, the report warned of growing fragmentation and troubling signs, such as a decrease in cross-border patents. Addressing the Forum on Tuesday, 21 January, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen echoed these concerns, urging closer collaboration to avoid "a global race to the bottom." She singled out three areas for deeper integration within the EU: the capital markets union, the single market, and the energy union, while reminding the WEF attendees of the continued importance of climate action. In this regard, on 23 January, she announced the launch of a new Global Energy Transition Forum with Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, to bring together partners from around the world with the aim of maintaining momentum on the clean energy transition. 

However, threats to decarbonisation efforts are also growing in Europe, and within Ursula von der Leyen’s own political group. Indeed, at the European People’s Party leadership summit held in Berlin in early January, the group put forward a joint  paper proposing a return to pre-2019 "green wave" policies, effectively calling for a suspension or significant scaling back of flagship initiatives from the Green Deal, such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, the corporate sustainability reporting rules, and the taxonomy for sustainable activities. 

But it is across the Atlantic, ultimately, that the backlash against green policies has recently progressed the most. Within 24 hours of taking office, President Donald Trump signed a flurry of executive orders, including one on “Unleashing American Energy” which notably aims to repeal certain provisions of former President Joe Biden’s flagship initiative, the Inflation Reduction Act. In another executive order, President Trump announced the US’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement for the second time. The US, however, will have to wait a year before it can formally leave the non-binding treaty, which gathers nearly 200 countries and aims to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. 

Additionally, the new US President declared a “national energy emergency”, a measure usually invoked in wartime, to maximise oil and gas production by speeding up permitting and rolling back environmental protections. While fossil fuel production in the country was already reaching record-high levels under the previous administration, the new plans will notably promote increased oil and gas drilling in Alaska, reversing efforts to protect Arctic and coastal areas. Furthermore, the executive orders, which aim to reduce energy prices for consumers, increase US energy security, and respond to the growing electricity demand from the digital sector, are expected to revoke previous targets for electric vehicle adoption, suspend the leasing of federal lands and waters for wind energy production, and lift a freeze on LNG export permitting.  

In the digital sphere, Trump took similar radical action, unveiling a half-trillion-dollar artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure project to strengthen US leadership in this key area. In a move to bolster American market dominance, the announcement was made alongside AI chip export restrictions and the rescinding of AI regulation plans. Meanwhile, the EU is poised to invest only €1.5 billion across seven AI factory projects. 

With the new EU institutional cycle and the US presidency now in place, the evolving geopolitical dynamics influencing international cooperation and competition are becoming clearer, highlighted by the inauguration of President Trump and the Davos WEF, which mark key moments in shaping the global political agenda for the years ahead. In this context, the EU will be increasingly called upon to rise to the challenge of becoming a central player in defining the new world order, amid both internal and external pressures to prove its relevance and impact in an increasingly fragmented and uncertain global landscape.