On 22 November, COP30 in Belém, Brazil, concluded a day later than planned. While the conference delivered the Belém Political Package — a set of draft decisions intended to accelerate climate ambition, finance, transparency, trade, and a fair social and economic energy transition — tangible progress remained limited on key issues such as fossil fuel phase-out, adaptation finance, and forest protection. The package includes 59 voluntary, non-prescriptive indicators to track progress under the Global Goal on Adaptation, a global goal under the Paris Agreement, covering all sectors, including water, food, health, ecosystems, infrastructure, and livelihoods, while integrating cross-cutting issues such as finance, technology, and capacity building.

Despite high expectations, discussions on phasing out fossil fuels once again proved contentious. In the final Mutirão decision — a high-level political text proposed by the COP Presidency and adopted by participating countries — parties referenced the outcomes of COP28 (‘UAE Consensus’) on the transition away from fossil fuels but omitted explicit phase-out language, disappointing negotiators who had called for stronger commitments. Over 80 countries, including the EU, had pressed for a formal roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, but this was blocked by states dependent on oil and gas. Brazil’s presidency has pledged to pursue parallel roadmaps for both deforestation and the transition from fossil fuels, independently of COP decisions.

Several parties, including the European Union, noted that the international community remains far from limiting global warming to as close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels as possible, as enshrined in the Paris Agreement. Current scientific assessments indicate that this target will likely be temporarily exceeded, with an overshoot expected in the early 2030s. On social climate protection, or the “Just Transition,” COP30 made progress in bridging divides between the Global North and South. The mechanism prioritises people and equity, aiming to support those affected by the energy and economic transition through capacity building, technical assistance, and knowledge exchange. Parties also agreed to mobilise US$1.3 trillion in climate finance annually by 2035, double adaptation finance by 2025, and treble it by 2035.

The Loss and Damage Fund, crucial for vulnerable countries, has now been established. Brazil’s Tropical Forests Forever Fund (TFFF) secured US$5.5 billion in funding, with participation from 53 countries, at least 20% of which is earmarked for Indigenous communities and local stakeholders. Notably, for the first time at a COP, delegates explicitly recognised the need to combat climate disinformation, pledging to promote information integrity and counter narratives that undermine science-based action. The next Climate Change Conference will be held in 2026 in Antalya, Turkey, which will provide the COP President. Australia will assume the role of Vice-COP Chair and lead the negotiations.